In 2026, national defence and data centres joined electrification and the energy transition as major new drivers of copper demand in Western economies. These developments have helped spark a public conversation around copper’s critical role in our daily lives, the escalating supply-demand imbalance, and the need for increased domestic supply in the West.
Despite heightened awareness, these countries remain slow to implement plans to speed up copper production and ramp-up recycling. The US, Canada, and Australia, among other Western allies with rich copper deposits and decades of reserves, lack follow-through strategies to kick-start new production and shepherd long-term implementation. Three priorities stand out:
- Governments must prioritise permitting reforms. While copper’s US and Canadian critical metal designations prioritise new mine development and supply, they do not provide a road map for streamlining permitting processes. Miners face lengthy, highly bureaucratic permitting processes that delay new copper production by years. Permitting reforms, inclusive of early engagement with communities and stakeholders (e.g. local, Indigenous, environmental stewards), and improved coordination across agencies are essential to bringing copper mines online in a timely way. Educating decision-makers about mine development and copper usage is also key. The decade-old American Permitting Council and its Fixing America’s Surface Transportation Act (FAST-41) have been useful initiatives to advance infrastructure permitting. However, turnaround times should not be beholden to the political will of the day. In this same 10-year period, I have had exploration drill permits approved following a six-week review, while recent ones were granted in just four days. Expediting copper and other designated critical metals projects must be a non-partisan initiative championed by governments and opposition parties.
- The expansion of permitting staffing is vital. Well-staffed, well-trained expert personnel in regional and federal offices not only keep up with licensing demands, but also have a greater local understanding of needs and challenges, both for mine operations and the aforementioned communities and stakeholders.
- We must focus on mining essentials before other remedies. While the industry wants permitting reforms prioritised, governments often look to other strategies in the hopes of stimulating domestic copper production and downstream refining capabilities. This approach may influence some mining-side operations, but investing in mining infrastructure remains the best long-term path to securing domestic copper supply.
Western countries also need greater smelting capabilities for copper supply. R&D advances may improve some extraction methods, such as electrowinning, but many ore types (as well as copper recycled from domestic sources) still require conventional smelting capacity. US processing techniques have been compromised in recent decades, especially for smelters. We have allowed many of them to be destroyed or become non-functional. Today, the entire US has three operating smelters, and Canada has only one that can process copper. In contrast, China, the top copper-producing nation, has 16 operational smelters and is building two more.
In any Western country, constructing a new smelter represents roughly a US$5 billion investment and can take over a decade to complete. This means private-sector buy-in requires a 15 or 20% return on investment.
Since China produces at such low margins and returns, most copper ore concentrates extracted in the US are shipped there for processing, which makes it almost impossible to compete without government support. The US government will need to consider how it can help expand domestic refining capacity if they are serious about supply security. If government acts, capital markets’ investments will follow.
Western governments increasingly recognise copper as a strategic material, but action must follow. Translating that recognition into permitting reform, investment in processing capacity, and long-term planning can bring new supply online before shortages deepen further.
